Tuesday, January 23, 2007

How'd I do?

Yesterday I posted my predictions for the Oscar nominations. Here are the actuals for the big categories (you can get the complete list here), and how my predix fared:

Best Picture
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

(4/5) Letters from Iwo Jima is in, Dreamgirls is out. The Dreamgirls snub surprised a lot of people, but it is the overall nomination leader. Some ask how it can happen, but I don't see on its face why it's so surprising that a movie can have technical merit and some good performances but still not be one of your five favorite movies of the year.

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

(3/5) As above, in with the Letters, out with the Dreamgirls. I thought Frears would get dropped in favor of Greengrass instead of the Little Miss Sunshine duo. Anyway, good job, Academy, for nominating Paul Greengrass.

Best Original Screenplay
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

(3/5) I underestimated Clint's appeal (dumb move on my part), and Pan's Labyrinth is the big foreign-language breakout, garnering a total of six nominations. Offhand, I remember that Das Boot did the same, but I'm not sure if anyone's compiled a list of foreign-language films getting multiple nominations or otherwise making it out of their own category. Ran and Cyrano de Bergerac had five each. I suppose it's worth noting this year that the Mayan-language American production Apocalypto had three nominations, the Japanese-language American production Letters from Iwo Jima earned four nominations, and that Spain's Volver and China's Curse of the Golden Flower picked up single nominations without getting into the Best Foreign-Language Film race.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

(2/5) I crapped out here, missing Borat, Children of Men, and Notes.

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

(4/5) OK, I did better here, missing Leo and thinking Borat's nomination would come here rather than for writing.

Best Actress
Penélope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

(5/5) This one was pretty easy, matching up with the Screen Actors' Guild nominations and without many viable spoiler candidates.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

(3/5) I had DiCaprio in the wrong category for the wrong movie.

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

(5/5) Not a whole lot of viable candidates to unseat the favorites here, either.

Overall: 29/40. Not all that great. Maybe if I'd seen more than a handful of these movies, I might have had a better idea of what they'd nominate, but then again, I still would have probably predicted Dreamgirls for Best Picture along with everyone else.


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