Tuesday, December 26, 2006

War in Somalia

So, Ethiopia is announcing that they're cutting through the Islamic militias in Somalia like a hot knife through butter. Is this going to turn out better than our similar efforts in Iraq? Somalia has been without an operationally effective government since 1991, although the Islamicists gained control of Mogadishu earlier this year and established their version of stability. I wonder what the future holds. Surely the people of Somalia want stability, but it can't be a good thing if sharia is the only system that can provide that stability. The best-case scenario is that Ethiopia provides the muscle that allows for the UN-sanctioned Somali transitional government to succeed. But it seems that even that would flare up problems with Eritrea. Any thoughts?


At Tuesday, December 26, 2006 at 4:26:00 PM PST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As it seems everyone is expecting Ethiopian success, but that will not be the case.

They(ZENAWI regime) can mislead the world telling Islamist are threaten Ithiopian,

We are not islamist nor terrorist but traditionaly liberal since generations & will never Except UNJUSTIFIED AGRESSION.

Since the whole world Takes sides , there would be no SOLUTION, only WAR WILL SPREAD ALL OVER EAST AFRICA.

At Wednesday, December 27, 2006 at 7:53:00 AM PST, Anonymous Erich said...

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. It's especially sad when "history" means "stuff that happened in the past ten years".

Since the ICU seems to be very much like the Taliban, and the ICU appears to be folding when attacked by the Ethiopians just like the Taliban did when attacked by the US, I am wondering if anyone is going to be surprised if, a few years down the road, the Baidoa government just controls a few cities while the ICU remains a persistent guerilla force in the hinterlands, just like the situation in Afghanistan.

Or maybe the Ethiopians will do a better job of rebuilding Somalia than the US did in Afghanistan. If we close our eyes and believe, anything is possible!

At Wednesday, December 27, 2006 at 8:47:00 AM PST, Blogger Adam Villani said...

Yeah. I did presents things merely as a best-case scenario. I'm pretty suspicious of right-wing bloggers saying, "hey, look at how successful the Ethiopians are. If only we had a whole bunch of troops and fought a REAL war, we'd be rid of the terrorists." Because the fact of the matter is that the U.S. efforts against Iraq looked this good in the early days, too. This was back in the old "mission accomplished" days when it looked like we could just plow through Baghdad, rout the Republican Guard, declare victory, and then just worry about clearing out a few stragglers later. There are right-wing bloggers declaring victory in Somalia now, and they haven't even reached Mogadishu.


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